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| موضوع: كتاب What Every Engineer Should Know About Decision Making Under Uncertainty الإثنين 04 سبتمبر 2017, 3:18 pm | |
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أخوانى فى الله أحضرت لكم كتاب سلسلة مايجب على كل مهندس معرفته عن What Every Engineer Should Know About Decision Making Under Uncertainty John X. Wang Certified Six Sigma Master Black Belt Certified Reliability Engineer Ann Arbor, Michigan
ويتناول الموضوعات الأتية :
Contents PREFACE CHAPTER 1 ENGINEERING: MAKING HARD DECISIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY 1.1 Case Study: Galileo's Cantilever Beam 1.2 Impact of Engineering Decision Making 1.3 Uncertainty and Risk Engineering 1.4 Decision Making and System Analysis 1.5 Engineering Decision Making in Six Steps 1.6 Customer-Focused Engineering Decision-Making System 1.7 Summary References CHAPTER 2 ENGINEERING JUDGMENT FOR DISCRETE UNCERTAIN VARIABLES 2.1 Case Study: Production of Electronic Modules 2.2 How Would Engineers Flip Coins? 2.3 Synthesize Knowledge into a Simulation Model 2.4 Simulation for What-If Analysis 2.5 Simulating Conditional Independence 2.6 Production Quantity and Quality Measures 2.7 Summary References CHAPTER 3 DECISION ANALYSIS INVOLVING CONTINUOUS UNCERTAIN VARIABLES 3.1 Case Study: A Bioengineering Firm 3.2 Normal Distributions 3.3 Lognormal Distributions 3.4 Selection Between Normal and Lognormal Distributions 3.5 Decision Tree Analysis 3.6 Capital Budgeting 3.7 Summary References Chapter 4 CORRELATION OF RANDOM VARIABLES AND ESTIMATING CONFIDENCE 4.1 Case Study: A Transportation Network 4.2 Covariance and Correlation 4.3 Linear Functions of Several Random Variables 4.4 Multivariate Normal Random Variables 4.5 Estimating Correlations from Data 4.6 Accuracy of Sample Estimates 4.7 Customer-Focused Engineering Decision Making 4.8 Summary References Chapter 5 PERFORMING ENGINEERING PREDICTIONS 5.1 Case Study: A Construction Project 5.2 The Law of Expected Posteriors 5.3 Linear Regression Models 5.4 Regression Analysis and Least Squared Errors 5.5 The Theory of Constraints 5.6 Summary References CHAPTER 6 ENGINEERING DECISION VARIABLES - ANALYSIS AND OPTIMIZATION 6.1 Case Study: Production Planning of Snowboards 6.2 Method 1: Simulating Payoffs for Each Engineering Strategy 6.3 Method 2: Simulating Payoffs from Alternative Strategies Simultaneously 6.4 Method 3: Optimizing Engineering Decision Variables to Maximize Payoff 6.5 Value of Information for Engineering Decisions 6.6 Decision Criteria: How to Value Engineering Alternatives 6.7 Evaluation of Cash Flow Information: Payback Method 6.8 The Time Value of Money 6.9 Evaluation of Cash Flow Information: Net Present Value (NPV) Method 6.10 Evaluation of Cash Flow Information: Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Method 6.11 Variable Cash Flow 6.12 Project Ranking 6.13 Summary References CHAPTER 7 PROJECT SCHEDULING AND BUDGETING UNDER UNCERTAINTY 7.1 Case Study: Expansion of a Fiber Optics Firm's Office Space 7.2 Establish a Project Scheduling Network 7.3 Spreadsheet Strategies for Solving CPM Problems Using Excel 7.4 Solving Critical Path Problems Using Excel Solver 7.5 Crashing CPM Networks Using Excel 7.6 Developing an Approximate PERT Solution in Excel 7.7 Developing a Complete PERT Solution in Excel 7.8 Probabilistic Solutions to Project Scheduling Simulation Using Excel 7.9 Project Budgeting 7.10 Summary References CHAPTER 8 PROCESS CONTROL - DECISIONS BASED ON CHARTS AND INDEXES 8.1 Processes and Process Variability 8.2 Statistical Process Control 8.3 Types of Out-of-Control Conditions 8.4 Sampling and Control Charts 8.5 Steps in Determining Process Capability 8.6 Capability Indexes 8.7 Continuous Quality Improvement vs. Business Process Re-engineering 8.8 Six Sigma Quality 8.9 Summary References CHAPTER 9 ENGINEERING DECISION MAKING: A NEW PARADIGM 9.1 Engineering Decision Making: Past, Present, and Future 9.2 Engineering Decision-Making Tool Box 9.3 Balancing Technical Merits, Economy, and Delivery 9.4 Engineering Decision Making in a Corporate Setting 9.5 Summary References APPENDIX A ENGINEERING DECISION-MAKING SOFTWARE EVALUATION CHECKLIST APPENDIX B FOUR PRIMARY CONTINUOUS DISTRIBUTIONS
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