Admin مدير المنتدى
عدد المساهمات : 18959 التقييم : 35383 تاريخ التسجيل : 01/07/2009 الدولة : مصر العمل : مدير منتدى هندسة الإنتاج والتصميم الميكانيكى
| موضوع: كتاب 100 Excel Simulations - Using Excel to Model Risk الثلاثاء 20 أبريل 2021, 1:09 pm | |
|
أخوانى فى الله أحضرت لكم كتاب 100 Excel Simulations - Using Excel to Model Risk Dr. Gerard M. Verschuuren
و المحتوى كما يلي :
Contents Gambling . 2 1. The Die Is Cast 2 2. Casting Six Dice 4 3. Frequencies 6 4. Roulette Machine 8 5. Gambler’s Ruin . 10 6. Random Walk . 12 7. Gambling Strategy 14 8. Cracking a Password . 16 Statistics . 18 10. The Mean of Means . 20 11. Sampling 22 12. The Normal Distribution 24 13. Normalizing . 26 14. Repeats . 28 15. Confidence Margins . 30 16. Power Curves . 32 17. Hidden Peaks . 34 18. Sampling Sizes . 36 19. Quality Control 38 Genetics . 40 21. Sex Determination 42 22. Radiation and Mutation . 44 23. Mendel . 46 24. Hardy-Weinberg Law 48 25. Genetic Drift . 50 26. Lethal Homozygote . 52 27. Reduced Vitality . 54 28. Two Selective Forces . 56 29. Balanced Equilibrium 58 30. Molecular Clock 60 31. DNA Sequencing . 62 Financial 64 33. Risk Analysis . 66 34. Missing or Exceeding Targets . 68 35. Two-Dimensional Filters 70 36. Scenarios . 72 37. Moving Averages . 74 38. Return on Investment . 76 39. Employee Stock Options . 78 40. Value at Risk . 80 41. Asian Options . 82 42. Black-Scholes Model . 84vi Expansion 86 44. Extrapolation 88 45. Predator-Prey Cycle 90 46. Homeostasis 92 47. Taking Medication 94 48. Population Pyramid . 96 49. Titration 98 50. EC50 Determination . 100 51. Converter 102 52. Conditional Training 104 53. Epidemics 106 Monte Carlo Simulations 108 55. Brownian Motion 110 56. A Traffic Situation . 112 57. Uncertainties in Sales . 114 58. Exchange Rate Fluctuations . 116 59. Cost Estimates 118 60. Market Growth . 120 61. Integration with Monte Carlo 122 Iterations 124 63. Win or Lose? . 126 64. Circular Gradients 128 65. Single-Cell Arrays . 130 66. Data Management . 132 67. Solving Equations . 134 68. Least Squares Method . 136 69. Combining Scenarios . 138 70. Logistics 140 Extras . 142 72. Graph Manipulation . 144 73. Detecting Outliers 146 74. False Positives . 148 75. Probability of Beliefs 150 76. Unbiased Sampling . 152 77. Numbering Records 154 78. Fiscal Year . 156 79. Stock Market . 158 80. Forecasting Temperatures 160 Miscellanea 162 82. Graph Manipulation 164 83. Simulation of a Slot Machine 166 84. Letter Game 168 85. A Hawk-Dove Simulation 170 86. Flock Behavior . 172 87. Simulation of Sick Cases 1741 88. Ehrenfest’s Urn Simulation 176 89. Two Monte Carlo Integrations 178 90. Randomness in Gene Pools . 180 91. Random Mating . 182 92. Differences in Fitness . 184 93. Loan Simulation 186 94. Stock Volatility . 188 95. S&P 500 Performance 190 96. Scenario Risks 192 97. Temperature Fluctuations . 194 98. Juror Selection . 196 99. Waiting Time Simulation 198 100. Project Delays . 200 Appendices . 202 1. Locking Cell References . 202 2. Nested functions . 204 3. What-If Tables 206 5. Simulation Controls . 208 Index Index Symbols $ in cell references 202 :east squared residuals 135 #N/A explained 50 generated by =NA() 50 hiding chart points 74 #VALUE! error 130 A ABS to highlight lowest value 59 to remove minus sign 33 Absolute cell references 202 Allele dominant vs. recessive 46 Alpha error explained 32 from CONFIDENCE 30 Amortization table 186 Ampersand operator (&) 16 Amplitude 92 Analysis Toolpak for CONVERT function 102 for Moving average 75 for Normal distribution 24 for QUOTIENT function 154 for RANDBETWEEN 2 AND for multiple conditions 37 Annuity 79 APR 64 raise to (1+APR)^Years 65 Area under the curve 178 Array functions as result of Data Table 206 can not delete part of array 31 compared to SUMPRODUCT 130 for Least squares 137 FREQUENCY 6 multi-cell 29, 44, 88 require Ctr+Shift+Enter 45 single-cell 130, 132, 137 TABLE 30 TREND for extrapolation 88 TREND for interpolation 44 Asian options 82 Auto numbering records 154 AVERAGE for calculating mean 7 for moving averages 75 inside NORMDIST 25 with circular reference 128 B Bayesian probability 151 Bayes Theorem 148 Beautiful Mind, A 170 Bell-shaped curve defined 27 with BINOMDIST 19 Beta error 32 BINOMDIST for bell-shaped curve 19 with BINOM.INV 40 with “successes” 41 BINOM.INV for chromosomes 40 for quality control 38 Birds in flight 172 Black-Scholes model 84 Brownian motion 110 Brown, Robert 110 C Calculation for data tables 206 manual 9, 206 Cell references Locking 202 CHAR for lower case 16 for upper case 168 Chromosomes for sex determination 42 from grandparent 40 recessive allele 46 Circular references for iteration 124 for memory 162 Clinic waiting time 198 CODE 16 Coin flip 19 Collective behavior 172 Combination 154 Compounding 65 CONCATENATE formatting phone numbers 204 vs & operator 16 Conditional Formatting 7 Conditional probability 148 Confidence defined 27 margin 30 with exchange rates 117 CONFIDENCE 30 Conflict and cooperation 170 Confounding factor 144 CONVERT 102 Converting metric 102 COUNT 25 versus COUNTA 158 COUNTA 158 COUNTIF for data management 133 for uncertainty 114 with ROW 153 with SMALL 139 COUNTIFS 13 CRITBINOM 38 versus BINOMDIST 40, 174 Crowe, Russell 170 Ctr Sh Enter braces in formula bar 7 for array formulas 6 versus SUMPRODUCT 130 with squared residuals 137 with TREND 44 Ctr ~ to show formulas 3, 141, 202 Cumulative summing 169 D Data Table as What-If Table 206 for chromosmes 41 for iterations of RAND 11 for random walk 13 genetic drift 50 how to use 30 no row, empty column 111 Overhead 188 reduced vitality 54 sampling sizes 37 to detect repeats 29 with DGET 142 with only row input 67 Data Validation from formula 157 from list 33 Death penalty 196 Delays, project 200 Denaturation 62 Developer tab 208 DGET 142 Discounting cash flows 192 Discrete distribution 14 DNA sequencing 62 Dogs with fleas 176 DSUM 70 E EC50 100 Ehrenfest’s urn 176 Einstein, Albert 110 Employee stock 78 Epidemic 106 Equations 134211 ESS 170 Eulers method 106 Evolutionary strategy 170 EXP 82 for logistic equation 101, 137 for S-shaped curves 99 Expiration date 84 Exponential discounting 192 Exponential smoothing 75 Extrapolation 88 F F4-key 202 F9 calculate current sheet 4 to calculate 2 Fair option value 79 False positives 148 Feedback in homeostasis 92 Filters, two-dimensional 70 FIND 102 Fiscal year 156 Fitness in gene selection 56 Fitness of genotypes 184 Flea infestations 176 Flock behavior 172 FREQUENCY bins explained 6 with TRANSPOSE 164 Function arguments dialog 204 fx Button 204 G Gantt chart 200 Gene pool randomness 180 Genetic drift 50 Genotype fitness 184 Gradient 128 Graph manipulation 164 Growth rate 69 H Haplotype 61 Hardy-Weinberg law 48 Hawk-dove 170 Hayes theorem 148 Herd behavior 172 Heterozygote 46 in equilibrium 58 HLOOKUP 72 Homeostasis 92 Homozygote 52 I IC50 100 IF 3 IFERROR 13 INDEX 158 INT 2 verus ROUND 30 Integration 122 alternatives 178 Interpolation 44 Intersection of 2 lines 170 ISBLANK 133 ISERROR 143 ISNUMBER 103 Iterations circular references 124 in array formulas 130 in Solver 134 of Monte Carlo 112 using a Data Table 11 J Juror selection 196 L LARGE 132 Law of large numbers 20 LEFT 102 Letter game 168 Linear relationship 44 Loan simulation 186 Locking cell references 202 LOG 99 Logistic half-way point 100 in least-squares 136 in titration 98 Los Alamos National Laboratory 207 Lotka-Volterra model 90 Lower and uppercase 182 M Malaria 56 Manhattan Project 207 MATCH explained 13 Mating random 182 MAX with circular reference 125 MEDIAN as array formula 147 Median absolute deviation 146 Memory 162 Mendel’s laws 182 Metropolis, Nicholas 207 MID formatting phone numbers 204 with LEFT and RIGHT 102 MINVERSE 135 MMULT 135 MOD explained 9 for remainder after division 154 Molecular clock 60 Monte Carlo Simulations account for risks 114 and random numbers 108 for Stock Market 188 replacing integration 122 speed issues 207 tame the future 112 MONTH 156 Moving average 74 Mutations as molecular clock 60 due to radiation 44 N NA for outliers 147 from NA() function 50 preventing chart point 74 Name Manager 132 Nash, John 170 Nested functions 204 Neumann, John von 207 Normal distribution bell-shaped curve 19 for cost estimates 119 mean of means 20 versus sampling distribution 22 with Analysis ToolPak 24 without Analysis Toolpak 26 with RAND 207 Normalize 27 NORM.DIST or NORMDIST binomial distribution probability 174 explained 24 NORM.INV or NORMINV bell-shaped curve 27 explained 207 for Asian options 82 for exchange rates 116 for investments at risk 81 for random values 39 for survival rate 97 simulate APR fluctuations 65 versus CRITBINOM 174 with S&P data 190 with temperatures 194 NORMSDIST for standard normal 32 NORMSINV for standard normal 32 NOW versus TODAY 126 NPV with scenario risks 192212 O OFFSET 74 Offspring simulation 182 Option pricing 78 OR 3 as validation formula 9 Outliers 112, 117, 144, 146, 207 P Patient flow 198 Payment and interest 186 PERCENTILE explained 65 versus QUARTILE 147 PERCENTILE.EXC 65 PERCENTILE.INC 65 Percentile on chart 194 PERMUT 154 Permutation 154 PMT for loans 186 Polymorphism 56 balanced 58 Population pyramid 96 Power curve 32 Probability, conditional 148 Probability distribution for traffic 112 in Monte Carlo 207 Project delays 200 Pseudo-random 108 Put option 84 PV 79 Pyramid 96 Q QUARTILE 147 QUOTIENT 154 R RAND 2 for Binomial distribution 41 for coin flip 19 for DNA sequencing 63 for genetic drift 50 for letters 16 for Normal distribution 207 for sex determination 43 for up versus down 13 reliability 108 uniform distribution 24 verus Normal distribution 26 with Data table 11 with INT 21 RANDBETWEEN 16 availability 2 for selecting 153 returning decimals 97 uniform distribution 207 Randomized variation 207 Random letters 168 Random mating 182 Random number generator 25 discussion of seed 109 Random numbers for unbiased sampling 152 from Analysis ToolPak 24 in Monte Carlo simulations 207 in Normal distribution 26, 116 recalculate with Sh+F9 20 with RAND 168 with RANDBETWEEN 16 Random walk Brownian motion 110 genetic drift 51 simulating gambling 12 Range name 132 Relative cell references 202 Residuals least squares method 136 versus squared residuals 100 Return on investment (ROI) 76 RIGHT for leading zeroes 155 formatting phone numbers 204 with VALUE 102 Risk-free rate 78, 84 ROUND advantages versus INT 30 for random integers 16 ROUNDUP 156 ROW for descending months 158 for incrementing percentages 162 for moving averages 74 for numbering records 155 for sampling 153 for sequential numbers 28 instead of {1,2,3,4,5} 133 R-squared 144 S Sample size 22, 36 effect on confidence interval 30 Sampling distribution 22 techniques 152 Scenarios with 3rd dimension 72 with data table 64 with iteration 138 Scoll bar for input 142 Sequencing, dideoxy 62 Sex-linked 46 Shift F9 2 Shoaling behavior 172 Sick cases 174 Sickle cell anemia 184 Simulation control 44 SIN 92 Sine wave 93 SIR model 106 SKEW 34 Slot machine 166 SMALL 139 Solver for equations 134 for shipping 140 least squares method 136 Sorting 132 with a formula 155 S&P 500 190 SQRT 23 Squared residuals minimizing 100 with Solver 136 Standard deviation and NORMINV 116 estimating 22 normal distribution 24 of cost estimates 118 Standard error 22 z or t values 27 Statistics and sample sizes 22 STDEV versus STDEVP 23 Stock market S&P 500 190 Stock options 78 Stock-price tree 78 Stock volatility 188 Strike price 84 Students t-distribution 27 SUMPRODUCT 130 SUMXMY2 135 Swarming behavior 172 T TABLE can not be typed 30 explained 206 introduced 11 Table with memory 162 Temperature fluctuations 194 Test sensitivity 148 Test specificity 148 TODAY in fiscal years 156 versus NOW 126 Training 105 TRANSPOSE 164 TREND in extrapolation 88213 in interpolation 44 Type I vs Type II errors explained 18 reducing 32 U Ulam, Stanislaw 207 Upper and lower case 182 V Validation formula 9 VALUE 102 Value at Risk (VaR) 80 VBA 209 cracking passwords 16 VLOOKUP double VLOOKUP 153 explained 14 sort with a formula 155 versus HLOOKUP 72 verus INDEX 158 with scrollbar 142 W Waiting time 198 Weighted characters 168 Weighting 130 What-if analysis 206 confidence margins 30 sampling sizes 37 X X-chromosome 42 Y Y-chromosome 42 YEAR 156 Z Z-value 32
كلمة سر فك الضغط : books-world.net The Unzip Password : books-world.net أتمنى أن تستفيدوا من محتوى الموضوع وأن ينال إعجابكم رابط من موقع عالم الكتب لتنزيل كتاب 100 Excel Simulations - Using Excel to Model Risk رابط مباشر لتنزيل كتاب 100 Excel Simulations - Using Excel to Model Risk
|
|